Predicción taquilla Estados Unidos

17 Octubre 2007

On next weekend, Hollywood majors will release four movies in wide-open. The biggest open will be The Comebacks, a comedy with a sense of humor close to Scary movie but focused on American Football. Fox will release the film in more than 2.800 sales, with the intention to gross $15-18 millions. The Comebacks wants to attract young people, as the other “Movies” (Epic Movie and Date Movie) did in the last years. Fox hasn’t spent more than $20 millions in production, still the Advertising campaign is further than $25M. The major will need more than $80M to have a benefit.

Despite the largest open will be The Comebacks, the relevant release will be David Slade horror film fantasy 30 days of night. Sony will open the movie in 2.700 sales and will focus advertisings to ward males between 16 and 25 years-old. The vampire comic adaptation has the chance to top the box office, with more than $20 millions as Resident Evil: Extinction did a few weeks ago.

30 days of night has obtained excellent reviews (unusual in this kind of movies) and is possible that this will help the movie Box Office during next weeks among adult male +30 and in overseas market.

Autumn season is time for dramas. During the past weekend, major studios released three titles: Michael Clayton, We own the night and Elisabeth: the golden age. Each of them obtained weak grosses. This weekend New Line’s spy-war drama Rendition, with Resee Whiterspoon heading the cast, Miramax’s Gone baby gone, directed by Ben Affleck, and Dreamworks/Paramount’s Things we lost in the fire, with Halle Barry and Benicio del Toro will open in several sites.

Rendition is the major release in this group, and has options among the female audience older than 30 year. The plot is focus on a wife who lost her husband in Iraq. The woman wants her man back home but war conflict and public administration will put obstacles in the path. The move is also co-started by Meryl Streep and Jake Gyllenhall.

Gone baby gone is Ben Affleck’s debut behind the cameras, and has obtained positive reviews. The movie will open in 1.500 sales and can reach $10m gross during the weekend. Gone baby gone also has focused its campaign in adult audience older than 30 year, and that could damage the other “adult” movies, as happened in the last weekend.

Gone baby gone’s budget is $19M, whereas New Line’s Rendition is significantly higher ($45-60M). Moreover, New Line has spent a lot of money (maybe $25M) in the advertising campaign, especially in magazines and television across USA.

Things we lost in the fire is the movie with the smallest chance to succeed in the box office. In spite of the good reviews, the movie will not attract audiences, especially because of the poor and confused trailer and the sad plot. Dreamworks-Paramount doesn’t have high expectations the economic result of the film and will release the movie in less than 1.000 sales. Fortunately, Things we lost in the fire has a low budget of $16M and will obtain no more than $4-5 millions.

Finally, this weekend Disney will re-release in 500 sales his 3-D cult-animation movie Nightmare before Christmas. Last year, the studio released the movie only in 168 sales with $19’000 per site. The movie ended with more than $8m. This year the major will surpass the result with $10m final gross.

Weekend 42 Forecast (Fri.19 to Sun.21)

Pau Brunet